Does Lionel Messi really deserve a ninth Ballon d'Or?

Would a Messi win be for best season or lifetime achievement?

The Ballon d'Or "short list" was announced today, and to no one's surprise Inter Miami captain Lionel Messi is on it for the 17th time in his 23-year career. Now, the debate can begin in earnest: Does the game's all-time greatest player deserve to win the prestigious award for a record ninth time?

His legions of fans will find the question ridiculous. It doesn't matter that Messi has won the award eight times, three more than rival Cristiano Ronaldo; in their eyes, the Argentine icon is deserving of every honor. And maybe he is; there is no doubt in my mind that the man from Rosario is the greatest ever to play the beautiful game.

But was he the best player in the world over the past year? That's tough to say. At 39, he's still producing at an elite level. Messi contributed 35 goals and 28 assists in the 2025 Major League Soccer regular season and playoffs, leading the Herons to their first MLS Cup championship, winning the Golden Boot and becoming the first player to win consecutive MLS Most Valuable Player awards; at this summer's World Cup, he led Argentina to the finals with 8 goals and 4 assists, and on Saturday he had two assists against Atlanta to become the first MLS player to have 30 goal contributions over three different seasons (he has 18 goals and 12 assists with 11 league matches remaining this season).

An excellent year, to be sure, but does it match Harry Kane's? The English striker scored 73 goals in all competitions in the 2025-26 season, second only to Messi's 91 goals in 2011-12, and Kane led Bayern Munich to the domestic treble, winning the Bundesliga, the DFB-Pokal (Open Cup) and DFL-Supercup.

The storyline may favor Messi, who turned in his best World Cup performance while his father battled an ultimately fatal illness; he almost singlehandedly carried La Albiceleste's defense of its 2022 title while carrying that pain inside him. It's a compelling narrative: the aging warrior's last campaign.

Unfortunately for Messi's most fanatical supporters, the narrative may not be enough. The Ballon d'Or winner is selected by a jury of 100 professional journalists, one from each of FIFA's 100 top-ranked footballing countries. They will study the 30 nominees and rank their top 10, with their first choice receiving 10 points, the second choice receiving nine points, and so on. The player who receives the most points when the 100 ballots are tallied will lift the trophy on Oct. 26 at the award ceremony in London.

Bet365.com reports that Kane is the early favorite to win the Golden Ball with odds of 8 to 13 (-162.5) It's hard to imagine him not winning the award, although England's third-place finish at the World Cup and Bayern Munich's failure to win Champions League could leave the door open to other worthies. Messi's odds? 25 to 1 (+2,500).

Will I be disappointed if Messi loses? No. His legacy is invincible; he is the greatest player of all time. Will I be disappointed if he WINS? What a silly question.

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