Has Messi's Argentina enjoyed an easier World Cup path than other favorites?

Even the United States faced a stronger World Cup slate than Argentina

Conspiracy theories aside, defending champion and FIFA's top-ranked national team Argentina has faced an easier World Cup path than other contenders -- and even co-host the United States.

La Albiceleste play Egypt today at 11 a.m. CDT for the opportunity to play Colombia or Switzerland in a quarterfinal Saturday. If all goes as expected, Argentina would play No. would 4 England in the semifinals.

The quarterfinal brackets don't seem balanced; on one side, No. 3 France meets No. 7 Morocco and No. 2 Spain meets No. 9 Belgium. On the other side, No. 1 Argentina or No. 29 Egypt will meet No. 13 Colombia or No. 19 Switzerland, and No. 4 England will play No. 31 Norway.

Argentina, England, France and Spain were the p" re-tournament favorites to win this year's edition of the world's greatest competition, but their paths (assuming Argentina beats Egypt today) but Messi & Co. have had a significantly easier road. Based on FIFA's June 11 world ratings, La Albiceleste's first five World Cup opponents had an average rating of 42.2. The average rating for the other top contenders fell in a two-point range -- France (36.4), England (35.6) and Spain (34.6) -- all at least 5 points more difficult than Argentina's. (Just for kicks, I included the U.S. Men's National Team "strength of schedule" -- at 32.6, much stronger than the contenders.)

Argentina	France	England	Spain	United States
Austria, 24	Senegal, 15	Croatia, 11	Portugal, 5	Belgium, 9
Algeria, 28	Norway, 31	Mexico, 14	Uruguay, 16	Turkiye, 22
Egypt, 29	Sweden, 38	Panama, 34	Austria, 24	Australia, 27
Jordan, 63	Paraguay, 41	DR Congo, 46	Saudi Arabia, 61	Paraguay, 41
Cabo Verde, 67	Iraq, 57	Ghana, 73	Cabo Verde, 67	Bosnia & Herzegovina, 64
Avg. 42.2	Avg. 36.4	Avg. 35.6	Avg. 34.6	Avg. 32.6

If La Albiceleste defeats the Pharaohs today, they will play their first top 20 opponent -- Colombia (13) or Switzerland (19) -- Saturday in the quarterfinals.

The teams didn't choose their schedules nor do they control which teams advance; they play the games before them. But, to the extent that FIFA's rankings are accurate (a discussion for another day), it's clear the Cup-holders have had an easier go.

One could argue that the "easier" schedule is a disservice to Argentina, that they haven't been tested (Did you even see the Cabo Verde match?).

What does it all mean? We can each draw our own conclusions. For me, it's an interesting observation, but it doesn't change anything. Argentina has won the matches and will have to continue winning to reach their ultimate goal.

Vamos, Argentina!

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